When we said the second quarter would bring new challenges, a snap UK general election wasn’t on our minds, but political uncertainty was. Therefore, it’s interesting that markets currently seem to be pricing in greater certainty as a result of this week’s announcement. We don’t know if this election will run more to script than others have in the last year; but we’ve started to think about what it might mean for companies and markets – and how much it matters in the grand scheme of 2017. … More What does the general election mean for capital?
On paper there’s some testing events coming up, from the French election to some potentially pivotal monetary policy meetings and on-going debates around BREXIT and US policy. Geopolitical tensions are also heightened. But, we’ve been through difficult quarters before without there being much discernible change on the ground in terms of investor sentiment and corporate attitudes to deals. So will anything trigger a change this quarter? … More Q2…something new?
So another quiet week then! Ostensibly nothing has changed; but, by triggering Article 50 the UK has begun a new chapter. There’s a risk of greater volatility as negotiations begin and investors try to second guess the ending. No spoilers here, but this week, I’ll talk about the importance of narrative, the changing story and the themes we expect to see in the markets. … More A new chapter
This week’s guest editor is Alan Hudson, Head of UK and Ireland Restructuring.
Inflation to the left of me, online rivals to the right…many of our retailers really do look stuck in the middle, squeezed between rising economic and structural challenges in 2017. This week, we’re looking at the EY ITEM Club’s latest thinking on the consumer, in the context of disruptive and structural pressures on the sector, to understand why retail is the subject of so much concern in 2017. And then we ask: what can retailers do to not just survive, but ride the storm? … More Why retail?
We talked here before about the differential impact of BREXIT on UK share prices, but what about multiples? This week we’d like to look at how UK market multiples have changed in the last year – in absolute terms and against their European peers. A few sectors stand out in particular…could this make them a target for domestic or overseas buyers? … More The ‘BREXIT delta’
Political risk, inflation and uncertain monetary backdrop… and still leverage loan issuance reached its highest level since the financial crisis at the start of 2017. Can nothing upset debt markets? Given the continuing high level of support from monetary policy and a better than expected economic outlook, the likelihood is that conditions will remain broadly … More What about debt?
I was delighted to be invited to sit on a CASS Business School panel last week to discuss the M&A outlook. I’d like to share some of the observations here – especially in the light of the fast moving events that happened shortly after! … More Thoughts on deal making – and last weekend
At the end of 2016 we wrote about a new era for oil and a new pricing pattern that we thought would hold into 2017. Is the snake still stuck in the drain? How well is our price prediction holding up and what does it mean for M&A and the much beleaguered oil field services sector in 2017? … More What’s new in oil?
Profit warnings are a measure of performance against expectation. So, given the overall upside surprise in 2016, it’s not surprising that the annual figure was the lowest for three years. But our data also tells a story of a growing gap between winners and losers. … More Profit warnings: who’s swimming against the tide?
We said it wouldn’t be a quiet year! This week we’re focusing on two phenomena: what looks set to be a record January for global M&A – surpassing even 2007 – and record equity market performances in the wake of the Dow going through 20K. The dollar looks “interesting” too. As do high-yield bonds – even energy ones. So much for uncertainty damping activity. I keep hearing about “animal spirits” driving this – but is it sustainable? … More Animal spirits trump uncertainty