This week’s blog comes from EY’s UK&I Markets Leader, Lee Downham. In this week’s blog, we’ll set out where we stand now, before exploring which parts of the economy could be most vulnerable to further operational, supply and demand-side shocks – both direct and indirect. Whilst we hope the economic impact of the Covid-19 virus proves … More Covid-19: What now, what next?
Last week I picked out the first five of my ten areas to watch this summer – including oil, which has lived up to its volatile billing. As with so much we discussed, pricing is difficult when structural change has ripped up the old playbook. This week I’m turning my attention to five more issues … More What I’m watching this summer (Part 2)
This time last year we were on the brink of an unpredicted and unpredictable UK General Election and unexpectedly loud tightening noises from UK and US central banks. Still markets remained mostly becalmed. Given how 2018 is panning out, I’ll be amazed if this summer passes without drama. Investors are getting to grips with so … More What I’m watching this summer (Part 1)
At the end of 2016 we wrote about a new era for oil and a new pricing pattern that we thought would hold into 2017. Is the snake still stuck in the drain? How well is our price prediction holding up and what does it mean for M&A and the much beleaguered oil field services sector in 2017? … More What’s new in oil?
How do we even start to sum up 2016 on in one blog? Great tomes will surely be written about a year in which so many orthodoxies were overturned and paradigms shifted. … More What happened in 2016?
The OPEC deal announced last week helped to propel the price of a barrel of Brent Crude over the $50 mark, the highest for well over a year and almost double its January low. But prices have stalled since, underlining our view that this isn’t a one way ticket. So where next for oil?
Will volatility thwart M&A ambitions in 2016? Markets have recovered from their dire start to 2016; but lingering uncertainty will keep them in a volatile holding pattern for a while yet. Thus far, this doesn’t seem to have seriously dulled companies’ deal making appetites. We are seeing fewer ‘mega-deals’, but a robust core market in … More Will volatility thwart M&A ambitions in 2016?
Global equities reached an eight week high this week. In the way this works now, this is partly because of some good news and also because of some bad news that becomes good news because it’s raised hopes for further/continued stimulus. While we all ponder how on earth we got into this confused state, here … More Hopes and fears in six charts
In March 2015 we discussed the opportunities and threats posed as $3t of global bonds traded with negative yields. Last week, that figure hit $6t – one third of the total market. Meanwhile, more central banks are talking or enacted NIRP – Negative Interest Rate Policy – raising some awkward questions. It’s tough to build … More Feeling negative – Take II
Markets dived again this week and cheap oil is looking like more of a hindrance than a help. Its more obvious negative effects aren’t helping banks; but again the outlook warrants a reality check in bank stocks , not the current mass exit. There are plenty buffers left before banks hit a systemic crisis – unless panic crashes through them. … More We need to talk about oil