In March 2015 we discussed the opportunities and threats posed as $3t of global bonds traded with negative yields. Last week, that figure hit $6t – one third of the total market. Meanwhile, more central banks are talking or enacted NIRP – Negative Interest Rate Policy – raising some awkward questions. It’s tough to build … More Feeling negative – Take II
Markets dived again this week and cheap oil is looking like more of a hindrance than a help. Its more obvious negative effects aren’t helping banks; but again the outlook warrants a reality check in bank stocks , not the current mass exit. There are plenty buffers left before banks hit a systemic crisis – unless panic crashes through them. … More We need to talk about oil
..but while there’s liquidity, spare cash and romance let’s face the market and transact! The prevailing corporate attitude in 2015 was to fight disruptive forces, low growth and uncertainty by transforming the portfolio and building resilience. Our base case for 2016 is that companies will face similar challenges, turned up a notch. There’s an air … More Previewing 2016: There may be trouble ahead…
Takeaways: Euro-dollar divergence and the weak commodities outlook are on the agenda this week as we await new pronouncements from the ECB and OPEC – keeping the Fed’s next move always in mind. Given this week’s fever pitch of speculation, the ECB might need to take pretty radical action to move markets further and keep … More Divergence and adjustment: looking beyond the ‘new normal’.
Takeways: This week we’re bringing you a ‘back to school’ edition of the blog – although, judging from this summer’s level of activity, it doesn’t look like many of you spent that much time away from your desk. Nevertheless, we thought it would be a good time to put together our thoughts on what the … More What could the rest of 2015 hold?
Takeaways: So much for the summer break! Deal frenzy, spectacular market dives and the odd rebound. In modern sporting parlance, we can take the positives: earnings resilience, US recovery and a continuing M&A boom. However, it’s hard to escape the shift in mood. The last month has highlighted (again) how much market confidence is still … More August angst, September…..?
Takeaways: A major commodity index dipped to its lowest since the financial crisis level on Monday. The reasons are self-evident, with major commodity price deflators – strong dollar, uncertain Chinese demand and oversupply – continuing to plague markets. The fall obviously has broad consequences and this week we’re focusing on the impact on capital investment … More Don’t blame it on the buybacks…