..but while there’s liquidity, spare cash and romance let’s face the market and transact! The prevailing corporate attitude in 2015 was to fight disruptive forces, low growth and uncertainty by transforming the portfolio and building resilience. Our base case for 2016 is that companies will face similar challenges, turned up a notch. There’s an air … More Previewing 2016: There may be trouble ahead…
Takeaways: Euro-dollar divergence and the weak commodities outlook are on the agenda this week as we await new pronouncements from the ECB and OPEC – keeping the Fed’s next move always in mind. Given this week’s fever pitch of speculation, the ECB might need to take pretty radical action to move markets further and keep … More Divergence and adjustment: looking beyond the ‘new normal’.
Takeways: This week we’re bringing you a ‘back to school’ edition of the blog – although, judging from this summer’s level of activity, it doesn’t look like many of you spent that much time away from your desk. Nevertheless, we thought it would be a good time to put together our thoughts on what the … More What could the rest of 2015 hold?
Takeaways: So much for the summer break! Deal frenzy, spectacular market dives and the odd rebound. In modern sporting parlance, we can take the positives: earnings resilience, US recovery and a continuing M&A boom. However, it’s hard to escape the shift in mood. The last month has highlighted (again) how much market confidence is still … More August angst, September…..?
Takeaways: A major commodity index dipped to its lowest since the financial crisis level on Monday. The reasons are self-evident, with major commodity price deflators – strong dollar, uncertain Chinese demand and oversupply – continuing to plague markets. The fall obviously has broad consequences and this week we’re focusing on the impact on capital investment … More Don’t blame it on the buybacks…
Takeaway: Of course Greece isn’t out of the woods. We remain convinced that the only sustainable way forward is through debt reconstruction. It’s not off the table, but it’s not on it either. So, whilst this debate remains parked on a hostess trolley in Brussels, we’re going to ask a few questions to help take … More What’s next? Seven questions, six charts and two illuminating deals.
Riding the cycles Takeaways: With Hellenic worries on the back burner, equity markets have flirted with new highs. However, geopolitical machinations continue to provide reality checks and Greece will be back – soon. The commodities sector is obviously still coming to terms with new economic realities. M&A activity dipped in metals and mining again in … More Riding the cycles
Takeways: No deal and still we wait on Greece’s fate. Markets seem nonplussed. Is this faith in an 11th hour agreement or in sufficient mitigating factors? Both seem risky assumptions and no deal can ‘cure’ Greece overnight. Meanwhile, a tremendous amount of uncertainty remains elsewhere, not least in the volatile oil price and currency markets. … More And Greece is the way we are feeling…
Takeaways: Some of the trends for the year discussed last week are already apparent in events during the first weeks of 2015. Innovation is driving IP-centric M&A and divergent economic performances is showing where future stress points may appear.
Takeaways: Last year had its moments, but the last 12 months could look pedestrian compared to 2015. Of course change and even faster growth can bring challenge along with opportunity. Time to wheel out that old, but true, maxim that recovery can be the best, but also the worst of times for companies – and … More Buckle-up! Ten themes for 2015