The OPEC deal announced last week helped to propel the price of a barrel of Brent Crude over the $50 mark, the highest for well over a year and almost double its January low. But prices have stalled since, underlining our view that this isn’t a one way ticket. So where next for oil?
The bad news first: we start the second quarter with dark clouds gathering. The ECB has pulled out negative rates as its last available weapon to re-energise European economies. UK GDP growth forecasts have been revised downward again. Many companies are complaining of the most difficult trading conditions since the credit crisis. There’s talk of … More Defaults and dislocation
Global equities reached an eight week high this week. In the way this works now, this is partly because of some good news and also because of some bad news that becomes good news because it’s raised hopes for further/continued stimulus. While we all ponder how on earth we got into this confused state, here … More Hopes and fears in six charts
Market sensibility means we have to take a deeper dive into the underlying data to get a clearer understanding of what’s going on. We find that corporate sense is keeping M&A in fashion, debt markets are beginning to show the strain in places and it’s all about windows…..
..but while there’s liquidity, spare cash and romance let’s face the market and transact! The prevailing corporate attitude in 2015 was to fight disruptive forces, low growth and uncertainty by transforming the portfolio and building resilience. Our base case for 2016 is that companies will face similar challenges, turned up a notch. There’s an air … More Previewing 2016: There may be trouble ahead…
Takeaways: An end to uncertainty, an effective vote of confidence and the repetitive use of the word ‘gradual’ by the FOMC inspired a brief rally in most equity and bond markets – even in some more vulnerable areas. So, is there really nothing to see here after their 0.25% increase in interest rates? Not quite. The … More The Fed awakens!
We’ll be issuing a list of top ten themes for 2016 at the start of January. M&A is sure to feature and this week’s blog has a sneak preview in honour of a significant milestone and the return of a ‘mega-deal’ mooted in the last boom. There’s no reason to think that the deal carriage … More Previewing 2016: Will changes in the deal environment stall the M&A boom?