The World Cup reminds us how much many of us still strongly identify with nation states. In many major economies this sense of nationhood is increasingly being expressed through greater nationalism and a drive towards protectionist policies. Indeed, one way or another trade is going to dominate the markets this summer, through growing global tensions … More Trading places
Last week I picked out the first five of my ten areas to watch this summer – including oil, which has lived up to its volatile billing. As with so much we discussed, pricing is difficult when structural change has ripped up the old playbook. This week I’m turning my attention to five more issues … More What I’m watching this summer (Part 2)
This time last year we were on the brink of an unpredicted and unpredictable UK General Election and unexpectedly loud tightening noises from UK and US central banks. Still markets remained mostly becalmed. Given how 2018 is panning out, I’ll be amazed if this summer passes without drama. Investors are getting to grips with so … More What I’m watching this summer (Part 1)
It doesn’t seem like five minutes ago that we were talking about a synchronised global recovery. Today my inbox is full of articles asking if this is ‘As good as it gets’. Have things really turned south that quickly and what is driving this change of heart? This week we’ll take the temperature of the … More Are we losing momentum?
Profit warnings have grabbed the headlines, but the headline number is actually pretty average for the time of year. What’s extraordinary is the detail behind the profit warnings we saw in an eventful first quarter – and what these warnings say about the rapid reshaping of a large part of the UK economy. … More Profit warnings signal high street blues
This week we’re sharing insights from Jessica Clayton, Head of Retail Transactions and David Larsson, a Partner in EY Parthenon. It’s been a tough few months on the high street, but this week has really put its trials and tribulations in focus with two major retailers going into administration and further restaurant CVA. In this week’s blog, … More Why aren’t the tills ringing in 2018?
Plus ça change, plus c’est la même chose – the more things change, the more they stay the same! This has pretty much been the theme of the blog for the past few years. You only needed to look at volatility indices – and the growth in their derivatives– to appreciate the extent of this stasis. … More 2018 is shaping up to be (subtly) different