There are many questions to ponder this week. From the strength of the US recovery to why markets seem only periodically concerned with geopolitical turmoil – is everything a buying opportunity these days? Are junk bonds our canary? Is Banco Espirito Santo the last European bank casualty or a taste of things to come? US … More Questions, Questions…
At first look, the agreement signed by the BRICS to establish a new development bank (NDB) appears to be the strongest challenge yet to the global settlement that grew out of Bretton-Woods. Analysis of data from Oxford Economics shows that emerging economies now contribute 36% of global GDP, rising to 46% in next 10 years, … More A new world order?
The Bank of England unsurprisingly kept rates on hold last week and we have heard no more from Governor Mark Carney to help in determining the timing of any shift in policy.
Market froth may stir memories of 2005, but underlying tensions make 2014 a very different beast. Behind the market bravado, improving growth and falling sovereign yields, are central banks – still heaving and trying to sustain recoveries that are a bit loose at the seams. Governments and regulators should be trying to fix their economies … More Heave! Heave!
Rich in contradictions It has been an eventful week, typical of this recovery. Mixed economic news and full of the type of contrary market data that can make the recovery look both brittle and well set at the same time. Of course, opposing market forces can be healthy. Collective, unrestrained market exuberance didn’t exactly end … More Rich in contradictions
Only one place to start. The situation in Ukraine is evolving fast, with market risks taking shape. Whether the IMF/EU can find the money to keep Ukraine afloat is a moot point, given the threat of conflict. However, Ukraine’s troubles aren’t over even if loans and peace materialize. The Eurozone crisis has made us all … More “The biggest crisis in Europe in the 21st Century”
I guess we’re done with the bonhomie and musketeer spirit of the credit crunch era. Janet Yellen says the Federal Reserve will only change its course on tapering if emerging markets pose a threat to the US economic outlook. Harsh, but you can see where they’re coming from. The Fed doesn’t believe emerging markets represent … More Fed ‘unfriends’ emerging markets
The eerie post-taper calm is over. Disappointing Chinese data appears to be the proverbial straw that broke the back of emerging market confidence. Arguably, disappointing economic news from Beijing disrupts emerging market capital flows as much as any monetary missive from Washington. Unsurprisingly so, since so many emerging economies fortunes are closely tied to China. … More Emerging markets should resist systemic crisis