Ostensibly it looks like we’ve returned to our desks picking up pretty much where we left off. Or have we? It was by no means as dramatic a summer as those of Eurozone crises and taper-tantrums past or even last year’s oil & China worries. But arguably the summer has been a pivotal period that has established the terms … More Eight things we learnt this summer
Sometimes you need time away to really see how much has changed. What’s really grabbing my attention now is the low growth, low inflation, low interest rate world in which we find ourselves. It’s partly a hangover from the global financial crisis; but it’s also a product of secular forces – i.e. it’s not going … More Through the looking glass: from low yields to old solutions
In March 2015 we discussed the opportunities and threats posed as $3t of global bonds traded with negative yields. Last week, that figure hit $6t – one third of the total market. Meanwhile, more central banks are talking or enacted NIRP – Negative Interest Rate Policy – raising some awkward questions. It’s tough to build … More Feeling negative – Take II
Markets dived again this week and cheap oil is looking like more of a hindrance than a help. Its more obvious negative effects aren’t helping banks; but again the outlook warrants a reality check in bank stocks , not the current mass exit. There are plenty buffers left before banks hit a systemic crisis – unless panic crashes through them. … More We need to talk about oil
..but while there’s liquidity, spare cash and romance let’s face the market and transact! The prevailing corporate attitude in 2015 was to fight disruptive forces, low growth and uncertainty by transforming the portfolio and building resilience. Our base case for 2016 is that companies will face similar challenges, turned up a notch. There’s an air … More Previewing 2016: There may be trouble ahead…
Takeaways: A deal at last for Greece! After marathon talks which lasted over 17 hours, an agreement was announced on Sunday night to keep the Greeks in the Euro. ‘Deal’ in this case being an agreement to enter talks on a new bailout linked to a range of new pre-conditions. This effectively leaves Greece borrowing … More Yet another Greek tragedy playing out in Europe
Takeaways: Efforts to limit direct exposure means Greece is increasingly morphing into a political, rather than a financial crisis; but that can quickly change if companies and markets freeze or the political crisis extends elsewhere. The ECB’s move today to extend QE asset eligibility was necessary in any case…and possibly pre-emptive.
Takeaways: With Greece on the edge, markets have maintained remarkable poise. Meanwhile, there’s a warning that UK interest rates might rise this summer. Another Maradona moment? Labour markets might be ‘fizzing’, but a rate rise this summer feels premature, with echoes of the ECB’s move in 2008.
Takeaways: Greece is taking this to the 11th hour, so we turn our attention to buying and lending. Global M&A is still going great guns despite the slowdown in Q1…or is that because of? Meanwhile, more data on shadow banking pushes it out into the light and further to the notice of regulators. But there’s … More Deals into the light; lending into the shadows
Takeaways: D-Day rapidly approaching for Greece as time is running out to agree a deal with its international creditors, secure the release of badly needed bailout funds and avoid defaulting on its obligations. Rumours are rife that the Syriza government is preparing to take the dramatic step of declaring a default. The country is rapidly … More Time running out for Greece