I have a strong feeling that we’ve been here before. Major central banks making tightening noises with nothing to little happening has been a recurring theme since we started this blog. So what could be different this time? … More The interest rate conundrum
We’re wondering if we’ve reached a turning point in the UK economy and if developments here and in the US could shake-up markets this summer. … More Will volatility return this summer?
Once again we have a major UK poll and significant central bank meetings against a backdrop of oil price uncertainty. So this week we look back at June 2016, look forward into June 2017 and explore why deal making shouldn’t, but may stutter later this year. … More (Another) Pivotal June?
This week we highlight seven charts, taking us through the maelstrom of market themes that we take into summer. … More From VIX to avocados
Ostensibly it looks like we’ve returned to our desks picking up pretty much where we left off. Or have we? It was by no means as dramatic a summer as those of Eurozone crises and taper-tantrums past or even last year’s oil & China worries. But arguably the summer has been a pivotal period that has established the terms … More Eight things we learnt this summer
The ECB pulled out the big guns last week, including an extension to its quantative easing programme to encompass corporate bonds. The impact on the investment grade market has been immediate and dramatic, increasing fund flows, lowering spreads and creating record demand. But even amidst this renewed passion for Eurobonds, one issue got left behind … More Central banks, corporate bonds and the growing growth dilemma
In March 2015 we discussed the opportunities and threats posed as $3t of global bonds traded with negative yields. Last week, that figure hit $6t – one third of the total market. Meanwhile, more central banks are talking or enacted NIRP – Negative Interest Rate Policy – raising some awkward questions. It’s tough to build … More Feeling negative – Take II
Takeaways: Surprise! China has lowered rates and Brussels has all-but promised more liquidity. So, that’s currency volatility back to the top of the agenda. Markets are treating these moves as good news – for now. In a few days, they could be read as an indication of the global economy’s dire straits – that’s just the … More From Brussels (and Shanghai) with liquidity
Takeaways: So much for the summer break! Deal frenzy, spectacular market dives and the odd rebound. In modern sporting parlance, we can take the positives: earnings resilience, US recovery and a continuing M&A boom. However, it’s hard to escape the shift in mood. The last month has highlighted (again) how much market confidence is still … More August angst, September…..?
Takeaway: Central banks take centre stage as the spotlight moves back to the Euro – via the Swiss Franc It was almost inevitable that the upbeat tone driving capital markets activity in the first two weeks of the year would be broken, but the nature in which it was broken was anything but expected. In … More Central banks take centre stage….