Divergent – the opportunities and risks of diverging fortunes

Takeaway Monetary policies are polarising as fortunes diverge. Balancing the opportunities and risks will be easier for companies able to buy in areas of growth, access cheap debt markets in areas of stress and ride the currency waves. However, for those stuck on the wrong side of the currency equation or the growth and deflation … More Divergent – the opportunities and risks of diverging fortunes

New era in capital after (US) QE and AQR draws a line.

Takeaways: A new era awaits. The Fed’s final QE hurrah was flagged, but we expect more market discretion, volatility, disruption and currency oscillation without this safety net. The cost of debt capital will rise. Weaker/exposed nations and companies can expect a rougher ride. Brazil and Turkey look exposed. AQR ran just about to script, but … More New era in capital after (US) QE and AQR draws a line.

Work in Progress

Work in progress There’s a disconcerting chill in the UK’s ‘summer’ weather and a chill in the global economy too. The all-pervasive central bank policy filter and the ebb and flow of geopolitical worries often blurs the impact of poor economic data. However, there have been so-so figures from the US, Eurozone and Australia amongst … More Work in Progress

Tales of the (un)expected

News that hundreds of people successfully wagered on Luis Suarez biting someone during this year’s World Cup finals should come as no surprise. This is a good example of events that at first appear quite unexpected are not really so. Mr Suarez had been banned twice before for the same offence so odds of 175-1 … More Tales of the (un)expected

Tin hat or sun hat? A return to volatility this summer?

Summer could bring greater volatility than we’ve seen of late, certainly in energy prices and possibly across other markets making it tougher to get equity and debt away. Beyond the short-term crises is the much bigger problem of the slow grind of the Eurozone recovery, still hampered by its still heavy debt burden – time for … More Tin hat or sun hat? A return to volatility this summer?