Takeaways: Last year had its moments, but the last 12 months could look pedestrian compared to 2015. Of course change and even faster growth can bring challenge along with opportunity. Time to wheel out that old, but true, maxim that recovery can be the best, but also the worst of times for companies – and … More Buckle-up! Ten themes for 2015
Takeaway Monetary policies are polarising as fortunes diverge. Balancing the opportunities and risks will be easier for companies able to buy in areas of growth, access cheap debt markets in areas of stress and ride the currency waves. However, for those stuck on the wrong side of the currency equation or the growth and deflation … More Divergent – the opportunities and risks of diverging fortunes
Takeaways: A new era awaits. The Fed’s final QE hurrah was flagged, but we expect more market discretion, volatility, disruption and currency oscillation without this safety net. The cost of debt capital will rise. Weaker/exposed nations and companies can expect a rougher ride. Brazil and Turkey look exposed. AQR ran just about to script, but … More New era in capital after (US) QE and AQR draws a line.
Risk off Markets are in ‘risk-off’ mode. Weak surveys highlight the continuing struggles of the Eurozone to grow at all and of China to grow enough to meet its targets without blowing bubbles. Meanwhile, Eurozone banks have largely eschewed the ECB’s offer of cheap cash for lending for now – they may pick up more after … More All change! UK break-up & HY wake-up ?
Deflation, deflation, deflation…. Plus ça change, plus c’est la même chose – the more things change, the more they stay the same. There’s a change in ECB rhetoric, but we’re effectively looking at the same solutions. Markets are happy as long as someone is hinting at money printing – doesn’t matter whom or why. The disparity between … More Deflation, deflation, deflation
Work in progress There’s a disconcerting chill in the UK’s ‘summer’ weather and a chill in the global economy too. The all-pervasive central bank policy filter and the ebb and flow of geopolitical worries often blurs the impact of poor economic data. However, there have been so-so figures from the US, Eurozone and Australia amongst … More Work in Progress
The Bank of England unsurprisingly kept rates on hold last week and we have heard no more from Governor Mark Carney to help in determining the timing of any shift in policy.
News that hundreds of people successfully wagered on Luis Suarez biting someone during this year’s World Cup finals should come as no surprise. This is a good example of events that at first appear quite unexpected are not really so. Mr Suarez had been banned twice before for the same offence so odds of 175-1 … More Tales of the (un)expected
Summer could bring greater volatility than we’ve seen of late, certainly in energy prices and possibly across other markets making it tougher to get equity and debt away. Beyond the short-term crises is the much bigger problem of the slow grind of the Eurozone recovery, still hampered by its still heavy debt burden – time for … More Tin hat or sun hat? A return to volatility this summer?
So the World Cup has finally kicked off in Brazil, with the opening games already seeing some controversy and upsets. The hosts won their first match 3-1 against Croatia, helped in no small way by a rather dubious penalty. The Dutch shocked everyone by annihilating the holders Spain 5-1 (could have been eight or nine), … More Lies, damn lies, statistics and expectations