Pivotal June

I don’t think we need to hype this up; June could herald fundamental changes to our capital landscape.  There is already a great deal to digest from last week’s ECB and OPEC meetings and even more to anticipate from pivotal votes on US interest rates (14-15th) and the UK’s EU membership (23rd) – in case … More Pivotal June

Central banks, corporate bonds and the growing growth dilemma

The ECB pulled out the big guns last week, including an extension to its quantative easing programme to encompass corporate bonds. The impact on the investment grade market has been immediate and dramatic, increasing fund flows, lowering spreads and creating record demand.  But even amidst this renewed passion for Eurobonds, one issue got left behind … More Central banks, corporate bonds and the growing growth dilemma

Divergence and adjustment: looking beyond the ‘new normal’.

Takeaways:  Euro-dollar divergence and the weak commodities outlook are on the agenda this week as we await new pronouncements from the ECB and OPEC – keeping the Fed’s next move always in mind. Given this week’s fever pitch of speculation, the ECB might need to take pretty radical action to move markets further and keep … More Divergence and adjustment: looking beyond the ‘new normal’.

Disruption, deflation and default

Takeaways: Well that was quite a quarter. A litany of ‘worst since’ for many global benchmarks, M&A records, a will-they-won’t-they Fed saga  plus some spectacular share rollercoaster rides. We’re seeing rising confidence and investment in some areas, a maelstrom of concern in others. Perhaps the reason why we’re seeing such bifurcated views is because the … More Disruption, deflation and default

Greece: The Midnight Hour

Takeaways:  Efforts to limit direct exposure means Greece is increasingly morphing into a political, rather than a financial crisis; but that can quickly change if companies and markets freeze or the political crisis extends elsewhere. The ECB’s move today to extend QE asset eligibility was necessary in any case…and possibly pre-emptive.

The minute waltz

Takeaways: It’s a week that’s pushed US and UK rate expectations back, brought ECB buying forward and dragged all three currencies, but especially the euro down. The UK’s brush with negative inflation added to the ‘loose’ narrative – just don’t call it deflation or get complacent. All this has helped steady bond markets, but it’s … More The minute waltz