Takeways: US and European markets are dancing around record highs. Only one appears to be driven by economic fundamentals, but it would be misleading to suggest the US rally comes without disquiet or that Eurozone markets are all about Mario. European companies’ focus on operational improvement will provide opportunities for discerning investors. Stronger US growth … More The dance goes on: markets rise, whilst fortunes continue to diverge.
Takeaways: Deflation risks in spotlight. Eurozone forecasts dip further. Saudi action pushes oil price even lower. Bank of Japan hits the QE (panic) button (again) – raising the stakes in the currency markets. Strong corporate balance sheets provide opportunities to counter growth/deflation risks with acquisitions – despite the October M&A pause, pipelines look strong. Investor … More Deflating times
Takeaways: A new era awaits. The Fed’s final QE hurrah was flagged, but we expect more market discretion, volatility, disruption and currency oscillation without this safety net. The cost of debt capital will rise. Weaker/exposed nations and companies can expect a rougher ride. Brazil and Turkey look exposed. AQR ran just about to script, but … More New era in capital after (US) QE and AQR draws a line.
According to EY’s 11th bi-annual Global Capital Confidence Barometer (CCB), 40% of companies anticipate pursuing acquisitions in the next 12 months – the highest number for three years. More robust market conditions and expanding deal pipelines should see global M&A return to 2006 pre-crisis volume and value levels after a five-year deal slump. While 2014 … More Dealmaking set to rebound as middle-market looks set to drive M&A
Grey swans prompt market rethink There’s plenty to chew over this week. The rising possibility of Scottish independence, the ECB’s decision to go (almost) all in to avert deflation and stagnation and disappointing US jobs numbers have forced an investor rethink. Break-up and deflation fall under the category of “grey swan” events – conceivable events, … More Grey swans prompt market rethink
New term, new challenges. There’s a ‘back to school’ feeling this week with excitement and trepidation obvious in the markets. Activity is picking up after the summer break; however, the recent escalation in geopolitical tension and conflict demands a measure of caution. Meanwhile, we’re moving directly into the uncharted territory of an extraordinary countdown to … More New term, new challenges…
Equity markets started the week positively, having welcomed better figures from China that weren’t quite good enough to preclude official stimulus – a favoured combination. However, investors are still twitchy ahead of this week’s two main events– the ECB meeting on Thursday and US non-farm payroll data on Friday. After the announced fall in inflation … More Deal or no deal?