This time last year we were on the brink of an unpredicted and unpredictable UK General Election and unexpectedly loud tightening noises from UK and US central banks. Still markets remained mostly becalmed. Given how 2018 is panning out, I’ll be amazed if this summer passes without drama. Investors are getting to grips with so … More What I’m watching this summer (Part 1)
Takeaways: Well that was quite a quarter. A litany of ‘worst since’ for many global benchmarks, M&A records, a will-they-won’t-they Fed saga plus some spectacular share rollercoaster rides. We’re seeing rising confidence and investment in some areas, a maelstrom of concern in others. Perhaps the reason why we’re seeing such bifurcated views is because the … More Disruption, deflation and default
Takeaways: Last week’s engineered fall in the Renminbi was actually pretty modest, certainly in the context of the currency’s recent appreciation. More significant is what the move signalled – or more pertinently the market interpretation of those signals in the context of the un-virtuous circle of weak Chinese demand, falling commodities prices, a stronger dollar … More It’s not what you said, it’s how you said it…from China to CGOs
Takeaway: Of course Greece isn’t out of the woods. We remain convinced that the only sustainable way forward is through debt reconstruction. It’s not off the table, but it’s not on it either. So, whilst this debate remains parked on a hostess trolley in Brussels, we’re going to ask a few questions to help take … More What’s next? Seven questions, six charts and two illuminating deals.
Takeways: In some areas of the market it might feel a bit, well 2006-7. The rise in M&A ‘mega deals’, for instance, which could drive overall deal values to record highs in 2015. However, this M&A cycle differs in one vital respect: financial discipline. It’s a somewhat notable trait given the highly tempting yields on … More Disciplined M&A, unruly markets and emerging problems
Takeways: The rapid pace of change in today’s markets means companies need to be constantly reassessing their portfolios in order to stay on the right side of the ‘economic success line’. Luckily, this looks like a great time to sell with buyers coming back into the market in Europe. Many emerging nations, however, are finding … More Good time to buy, great time to sell?
Takeaways: The Eurozone, UK and ‘emerging markets’ have something in common: the sharp juxtaposition of optimism and concern. In varying degrees; but the contrast between opportunity and threat highlights the complicated patchwork of growth and risk companies are navigating. Was it ever thus? Risk isn’t new, but perhaps there is more flying in from ‘leftfield’ … More Eyes down for a fresh look…
All I want for Christmas… I’m not sure Santa will be able to deliver everything on central bankers’ lists this year. Mario must be wondering if he’s made the ‘naughty’ list as Eurozone inflation expectations dip again. Haruhiko got an early present in the form of an Abe election win – a green light for … More All I want for Christmas…
Takeways: The impact of dollar and oil trends on divergent emerging markets caught our eye this week. A timely reminder to check and update plans for different geographies and sectors and realign strategies. As with so much these days, past performance is no guarantee of future growth. Although some things don’t change: Greece is the word … More Crude dollar shakedown
Ifs, buts & mibbes It’s a truism that markets hate uncertainty. Flat calm brings its own complications – certainly for those who need volatility for margin and volumes. However, it’s hard to imagine many welcoming this week’s uncertainty play. The Federal Reserve and Scotland top the bill and the Fed isn’t even the main event. … More Ifs, buts & mibbes…