2019, the story so far…

January has two faces. On the one side, a global market rally, on the other rising global risks. There’s an obvious tension here. The rally seems largely based on investor expectations that these rising risks will slow the pace of US interest rate rises. But, 2019’s risks look broader and deeper than 2016, when we … More 2019, the story so far…

What else is happening?

In other words, what’s happening apart from Brexit? Because, without wanting to downgrade its significance, there is so much more going on that could easily be lost in the pre-vote maelstrom. Which is why this week, I’m going to focus on three other themes we can’t lose sight of – all of which also have … More What else is happening?

The winner takes it all…

What does the latest clutch of European earnings reports tell us? Revenues are under pressure and, whilst earnings are beating expectations, the bar was set very low. European companies still have a ways to go on improving their profitability and there’s certainly potential for all-round improvement. But in this low-growth, disrupted and polarized age, any … More The winner takes it all…

The Fed awakens!

Takeaways: An end to uncertainty, an effective vote of confidence and the repetitive use of the word ‘gradual’ by the FOMC inspired a brief rally in most equity and bond markets – even in some more vulnerable areas. So, is there really nothing to see here after their 0.25% increase in interest rates? Not quite. The … More The Fed awakens!

Divergence and adjustment: looking beyond the ‘new normal’.

Takeaways:  Euro-dollar divergence and the weak commodities outlook are on the agenda this week as we await new pronouncements from the ECB and OPEC – keeping the Fed’s next move always in mind. Given this week’s fever pitch of speculation, the ECB might need to take pretty radical action to move markets further and keep … More Divergence and adjustment: looking beyond the ‘new normal’.

Perplexing times – but we’re not calling time on M&A just yet

Takeaways: The 2015 rollercoaster continues. Markets raced back up in October for some good and some more speculative reasons. ‘Payroll Friday’ brought another twist and another lurch. Managing currency risk, raising capital and picking commodity prices will be tougher going in the rest of 2015. These are perplexing times, but this shouldn’t stop smart deal making. … More Perplexing times – but we’re not calling time on M&A just yet

Shifting narratives?

Takeaways: Despite – or perhaps because of – the disappointing US payroll numbers, markets have started Q4 in buoyant mood.  A confluence of events have contributed to the mild ‘melt-up’, including payroll inspired ‘looser for longer’ hopes, a ‘quiet’ China and suggestions of an oil price revival. This calm augurs well for the IPO market, … More Shifting narratives?