Discombobulated! Fed reaction & oil transformation

Takeaways: Markets didn’t know quite how to react when the Fed held last week. That’s hardly surprising when messages shift, narratives conflict and seven years of abnormal policy has created a ‘misallocation of capital’. A breakdown in the ‘normal’ relationships between assets and responses to good and bad news is becoming par for the course. … More Discombobulated! Fed reaction & oil transformation

Don’t blame it on the buybacks…

Takeaways: A major commodity index dipped to its lowest since the financial crisis level on Monday. The reasons are self-evident, with major commodity price deflators – strong dollar, uncertain Chinese demand and oversupply – continuing to plague markets. The fall obviously has broad consequences and this week we’re focusing on the impact on capital investment … More Don’t blame it on the buybacks…

What’s next? Seven questions, six charts and two illuminating deals.

Takeaway: Of course Greece isn’t out of the woods. We remain convinced that the only sustainable way forward is through debt reconstruction. It’s not off the table, but it’s not on it either. So, whilst this debate remains parked on a hostess trolley in Brussels, we’re going to ask a few questions to help take … More What’s next? Seven questions, six charts and two illuminating deals.

Ifs, buts & mibbes…

Ifs, buts & mibbes It’s a truism that markets hate uncertainty. Flat calm brings its own complications – certainly for those who need volatility for margin and volumes. However, it’s hard to imagine many welcoming this week’s uncertainty play. The Federal Reserve and Scotland top the bill and the Fed isn’t even the main event. … More Ifs, buts & mibbes…

Questions, Questions…

There are many questions to ponder this week. From the strength of the US recovery to why markets seem only periodically concerned with geopolitical turmoil – is everything a buying opportunity these days? Are junk bonds our canary? Is Banco Espirito Santo the last European bank casualty or a taste of things to come? US … More Questions, Questions…