Into the unknown

Takeaways: With an unexpectedly strong victory for the ‘No’ campaign in the Greek referendum we are sailing ever deeper into uncharted waters – and that brings a level of uncertainty that could rein-in the confidence shown by companies and investors alike in the first half of the year.

Greece: The Midnight Hour

Takeaways:  Efforts to limit direct exposure means Greece is increasingly morphing into a political, rather than a financial crisis; but that can quickly change if companies and markets freeze or the political crisis extends elsewhere. The ECB’s move today to extend QE asset eligibility was necessary in any case…and possibly pre-emptive.

On the rebound?

Takeaways: Knowing when the game’s up might be the theme of the week. The Greek saga rumbles on with both sides not able to agree now on how close they are to a deal. Eurozone markets remain sanguine. UK markets are even buoyant, with rising earnings expectations providing support. But will the recent lack of … More On the rebound?

The minute waltz

Takeaways: It’s a week that’s pushed US and UK rate expectations back, brought ECB buying forward and dragged all three currencies, but especially the euro down. The UK’s brush with negative inflation added to the ‘loose’ narrative – just don’t call it deflation or get complacent. All this has helped steady bond markets, but it’s … More The minute waltz