In other words, what’s happening apart from Brexit? Because, without wanting to downgrade its significance, there is so much more going on that could easily be lost in the pre-vote maelstrom. Which is why this week, I’m going to focus on three other themes we can’t lose sight of – all of which also have … More What else is happening?
High-yield bond indices are on track for their worst month since January 2016 How worried should we be? … More Risky business?
Market sensibility means we have to take a deeper dive into the underlying data to get a clearer understanding of what’s going on. We find that corporate sense is keeping M&A in fashion, debt markets are beginning to show the strain in places and it’s all about windows…..
Takeaways: An end to uncertainty, an effective vote of confidence and the repetitive use of the word ‘gradual’ by the FOMC inspired a brief rally in most equity and bond markets – even in some more vulnerable areas. So, is there really nothing to see here after their 0.25% increase in interest rates? Not quite. The … More The Fed awakens!
Takeaways: Our world is changing rapidly and unpredictably. We’ve picked a few areas to highlight this week, starting with a startling BREXIT poll that could reflect a broader inward turn across Europe. The UK’s version of Black Friday will be a reflection of retail’s changing landscape – turned up to 11. Moves in high-yield markets … More Changing landscapes: from BREXIT to high yield via the sales.
Takeaways: Surprise! China has lowered rates and Brussels has all-but promised more liquidity. So, that’s currency volatility back to the top of the agenda. Markets are treating these moves as good news – for now. In a few days, they could be read as an indication of the global economy’s dire straits – that’s just the … More From Brussels (and Shanghai) with liquidity
Riding the cycles Takeaways: With Hellenic worries on the back burner, equity markets have flirted with new highs. However, geopolitical machinations continue to provide reality checks and Greece will be back – soon. The commodities sector is obviously still coming to terms with new economic realities. M&A activity dipped in metals and mining again in … More Riding the cycles
Takeways: The impact of dollar and oil trends on divergent emerging markets caught our eye this week. A timely reminder to check and update plans for different geographies and sectors and realign strategies. As with so much these days, past performance is no guarantee of future growth. Although some things don’t change: Greece is the word … More Crude dollar shakedown
As several recent surveys, including our own Capital Confidence Barometer, have shown, there is a heightened perception of risk for both the investing community and those executives charged with running our largest companies. This risk is comprised of many different strands: geopolitical, financial, regulatory, and even medical. It is important that we can recognise and … More Relearning about risk
Risk off Markets are in ‘risk-off’ mode. Weak surveys highlight the continuing struggles of the Eurozone to grow at all and of China to grow enough to meet its targets without blowing bubbles. Meanwhile, Eurozone banks have largely eschewed the ECB’s offer of cheap cash for lending for now – they may pick up more after … More All change! UK break-up & HY wake-up ?