This time last year we were on the brink of an unpredicted and unpredictable UK General Election and unexpectedly loud tightening noises from UK and US central banks. Still markets remained mostly becalmed. Given how 2018 is panning out, I’ll be amazed if this summer passes without drama. Investors are getting to grips with so … More What I’m watching this summer (Part 1)
Plus ça change, plus c’est la même chose – the more things change, the more they stay the same! This has pretty much been the theme of the blog for the past few years. You only needed to look at volatility indices – and the growth in their derivatives– to appreciate the extent of this stasis. … More 2018 is shaping up to be (subtly) different
Stocks go down; stocks go up – but not usually by so much in a short space of time. In this week’s blog, we’ll look at why markets have been on such a wild ride and – crucially – what this might signal for the rest of 2018. … More Reality Bites
EY’s latest Analysis of UK Profit Warnings for Q2 2017 shows profit warnings hitting their lowest quarterly level in seven years. … More Profit warnings, ‘shrinkflation’ and zombies…
We’re wondering if we’ve reached a turning point in the UK economy and if developments here and in the US could shake-up markets this summer. … More Will volatility return this summer?
Takeaways: A deal at last for Greece! After marathon talks which lasted over 17 hours, an agreement was announced on Sunday night to keep the Greeks in the Euro. ‘Deal’ in this case being an agreement to enter talks on a new bailout linked to a range of new pre-conditions. This effectively leaves Greece borrowing … More Yet another Greek tragedy playing out in Europe
Takeaways: With Greece on the edge, markets have maintained remarkable poise. Meanwhile, there’s a warning that UK interest rates might rise this summer. Another Maradona moment? Labour markets might be ‘fizzing’, but a rate rise this summer feels premature, with echoes of the ECB’s move in 2008.
Takeaways: D-Day rapidly approaching for Greece as time is running out to agree a deal with its international creditors, secure the release of badly needed bailout funds and avoid defaulting on its obligations. Rumours are rife that the Syriza government is preparing to take the dramatic step of declaring a default. The country is rapidly … More Time running out for Greece
Takeaways: The IPO window isn’t closed entirely, but the bonanza is over. Investors are looking for a certain je ne sais quoi and keener pricing – open windows may also be limited in 2015. This opens up dual process or pure M&A opportunities – but HY borrowers should watch-out – it probably won’t get better … More Windows of opportunity
Deflation, deflation, deflation…. Plus ça change, plus c’est la même chose – the more things change, the more they stay the same. There’s a change in ECB rhetoric, but we’re effectively looking at the same solutions. Markets are happy as long as someone is hinting at money printing – doesn’t matter whom or why. The disparity between … More Deflation, deflation, deflation