This time last year we were on the brink of an unpredicted and unpredictable UK General Election and unexpectedly loud tightening noises from UK and US central banks. Still markets remained mostly becalmed. Given how 2018 is panning out, I’ll be amazed if this summer passes without drama. Investors are getting to grips with so … More What I’m watching this summer (Part 1)
Plus ça change, plus c’est la même chose – the more things change, the more they stay the same! This has pretty much been the theme of the blog for the past few years. You only needed to look at volatility indices – and the growth in their derivatives– to appreciate the extent of this stasis. … More 2018 is shaping up to be (subtly) different
Stocks go down; stocks go up – but not usually by so much in a short space of time. In this week’s blog, we’ll look at why markets have been on such a wild ride and – crucially – what this might signal for the rest of 2018. … More Reality Bites
EY’s latest Analysis of UK Profit Warnings for Q2 2017 shows profit warnings hitting their lowest quarterly level in seven years. … More Profit warnings, ‘shrinkflation’ and zombies…
We’re wondering if we’ve reached a turning point in the UK economy and if developments here and in the US could shake-up markets this summer. … More Will volatility return this summer?
Takeaways: A deal at last for Greece! After marathon talks which lasted over 17 hours, an agreement was announced on Sunday night to keep the Greeks in the Euro. ‘Deal’ in this case being an agreement to enter talks on a new bailout linked to a range of new pre-conditions. This effectively leaves Greece borrowing … More Yet another Greek tragedy playing out in Europe
Takeaways: With Greece on the edge, markets have maintained remarkable poise. Meanwhile, there’s a warning that UK interest rates might rise this summer. Another Maradona moment? Labour markets might be ‘fizzing’, but a rate rise this summer feels premature, with echoes of the ECB’s move in 2008.