What else is happening?

In other words, what’s happening apart from Brexit? Because, without wanting to downgrade its significance, there is so much more going on that could easily be lost in the pre-vote maelstrom. Which is why this week, I’m going to focus on three other themes we can’t lose sight of – all of which also have … More What else is happening?

Through the looking glass: from low yields to old solutions

Sometimes you need time away to really see how much has changed. What’s really grabbing my attention now is the low growth, low inflation, low interest rate world in which we find ourselves. It’s partly a hangover from the global financial crisis; but it’s also a product of secular forces – i.e. it’s not going … More Through the looking glass: from low yields to old solutions

Shifting narratives?

Takeaways: Despite – or perhaps because of – the disappointing US payroll numbers, markets have started Q4 in buoyant mood.  A confluence of events have contributed to the mild ‘melt-up’, including payroll inspired ‘looser for longer’ hopes, a ‘quiet’ China and suggestions of an oil price revival. This calm augurs well for the IPO market, … More Shifting narratives?

Discombobulated! Fed reaction & oil transformation

Takeaways: Markets didn’t know quite how to react when the Fed held last week. That’s hardly surprising when messages shift, narratives conflict and seven years of abnormal policy has created a ‘misallocation of capital’. A breakdown in the ‘normal’ relationships between assets and responses to good and bad news is becoming par for the course. … More Discombobulated! Fed reaction & oil transformation