In other words, what’s happening apart from Brexit? Because, without wanting to downgrade its significance, there is so much more going on that could easily be lost in the pre-vote maelstrom. Which is why this week, I’m going to focus on three other themes we can’t lose sight of – all of which also have … More What else is happening?
This time last year we were on the brink of an unpredicted and unpredictable UK General Election and unexpectedly loud tightening noises from UK and US central banks. Still markets remained mostly becalmed. Given how 2018 is panning out, I’ll be amazed if this summer passes without drama. Investors are getting to grips with so … More What I’m watching this summer (Part 1)
Plus ça change, plus c’est la même chose – the more things change, the more they stay the same! This has pretty much been the theme of the blog for the past few years. You only needed to look at volatility indices – and the growth in their derivatives– to appreciate the extent of this stasis. … More 2018 is shaping up to be (subtly) different
I have a strong feeling that we’ve been here before. Major central banks making tightening noises with nothing to little happening has been a recurring theme since we started this blog. So what could be different this time? … More The interest rate conundrum
How do we even start to sum up 2016 on in one blog? Great tomes will surely be written about a year in which so many orthodoxies were overturned and paradigms shifted. … More What happened in 2016?
Ostensibly it looks like we’ve returned to our desks picking up pretty much where we left off. Or have we? It was by no means as dramatic a summer as those of Eurozone crises and taper-tantrums past or even last year’s oil & China worries. But arguably the summer has been a pivotal period that has established the terms … More Eight things we learnt this summer
Sometimes you need time away to really see how much has changed. What’s really grabbing my attention now is the low growth, low inflation, low interest rate world in which we find ourselves. It’s partly a hangover from the global financial crisis; but it’s also a product of secular forces – i.e. it’s not going … More Through the looking glass: from low yields to old solutions
Takeaways: Despite – or perhaps because of – the disappointing US payroll numbers, markets have started Q4 in buoyant mood. A confluence of events have contributed to the mild ‘melt-up’, including payroll inspired ‘looser for longer’ hopes, a ‘quiet’ China and suggestions of an oil price revival. This calm augurs well for the IPO market, … More Shifting narratives?
Takeaways: Markets didn’t know quite how to react when the Fed held last week. That’s hardly surprising when messages shift, narratives conflict and seven years of abnormal policy has created a ‘misallocation of capital’. A breakdown in the ‘normal’ relationships between assets and responses to good and bad news is becoming par for the course. … More Discombobulated! Fed reaction & oil transformation
Takeaways: So much for the summer break! Deal frenzy, spectacular market dives and the odd rebound. In modern sporting parlance, we can take the positives: earnings resilience, US recovery and a continuing M&A boom. However, it’s hard to escape the shift in mood. The last month has highlighted (again) how much market confidence is still … More August angst, September…..?