Takeaways: A major commodity index dipped to its lowest since the financial crisis level on Monday. The reasons are self-evident, with major commodity price deflators – strong dollar, uncertain Chinese demand and oversupply – continuing to plague markets. The fall obviously has broad consequences and this week we’re focusing on the impact on capital investment … More Don’t blame it on the buybacks…
Takeaway: Of course Greece isn’t out of the woods. We remain convinced that the only sustainable way forward is through debt reconstruction. It’s not off the table, but it’s not on it either. So, whilst this debate remains parked on a hostess trolley in Brussels, we’re going to ask a few questions to help take … More What’s next? Seven questions, six charts and two illuminating deals.
Takeaways: A deal at last for Greece! After marathon talks which lasted over 17 hours, an agreement was announced on Sunday night to keep the Greeks in the Euro. ‘Deal’ in this case being an agreement to enter talks on a new bailout linked to a range of new pre-conditions. This effectively leaves Greece borrowing … More Yet another Greek tragedy playing out in Europe
Takeaways: With Greece on the edge, markets have maintained remarkable poise. Meanwhile, there’s a warning that UK interest rates might rise this summer. Another Maradona moment? Labour markets might be ‘fizzing’, but a rate rise this summer feels premature, with echoes of the ECB’s move in 2008.
Takeaways: D-Day rapidly approaching for Greece as time is running out to agree a deal with its international creditors, secure the release of badly needed bailout funds and avoid defaulting on its obligations. Rumours are rife that the Syriza government is preparing to take the dramatic step of declaring a default. The country is rapidly … More Time running out for Greece
Work in progress There’s a disconcerting chill in the UK’s ‘summer’ weather and a chill in the global economy too. The all-pervasive central bank policy filter and the ebb and flow of geopolitical worries often blurs the impact of poor economic data. However, there have been so-so figures from the US, Eurozone and Australia amongst … More Work in Progress
The Bank of England unsurprisingly kept rates on hold last week and we have heard no more from Governor Mark Carney to help in determining the timing of any shift in policy.
News that hundreds of people successfully wagered on Luis Suarez biting someone during this year’s World Cup finals should come as no surprise. This is a good example of events that at first appear quite unexpected are not really so. Mr Suarez had been banned twice before for the same offence so odds of 175-1 … More Tales of the (un)expected
So the World Cup has finally kicked off in Brazil, with the opening games already seeing some controversy and upsets. The hosts won their first match 3-1 against Croatia, helped in no small way by a rather dubious penalty. The Dutch shocked everyone by annihilating the holders Spain 5-1 (could have been eight or nine), … More Lies, damn lies, statistics and expectations
It’s oh so quiet… Sovereign debt yields – including that of the recently shunned – have reached yet new lows. Major equity markets have reached yet new highs. Volatility has left the building. Such is the curious nature of the current monetary policy wonderland, and rising belief in the longevity of low interest rates, … More It’s oh so quiet…low rate expectations becalm markets